A Tradecraft Primer - 目次 - intelligen @ ウィキ

Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1

はじめに

How To Use These Techniques .................................................................................. 5

Diagnostic Techniques................................................................................................ 7

   Key Assumptions Check..................................................................................... 7
   Quality of Information Check ............................................................................. 10
   Indicators or Signposts of Change.................................................................... 12
   Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) ....................................................... 14

Contrarian Techniques............................................................................................... 17

   Devil’s Advocacy................................................................................................ 17
   Team A/Team B  ................................................................................................. 19
   High-Impact/Low-Probability Analysis............................................................... 22
   “What If?” Analysis............................................................................................. 24

Imaginative Thinking Techniques .............................................................................. 27

   Brainstorming..................................................................................................... 27
   Outside-In Thinking............................................................................................ 30
   Red Team Analysis............................................................................................. 31
   Alternative Futures Analysis............................................................................... 34

Strategies for Using Structured Analytic Techniques................................................ 38

Selective Bibliography ............................................................................................... 40